Homeoffice Global Citizen Challenge en Bridgewater Associates LP

Description:

At Bridgewater we are fundamental and systematic. We seek to understand the cause and effect dynamics that drive economies and markets—how does monetary policy work, how does fiscal policy work? We then translate that understanding into expressions of mathematical logic and data, so that we can build algorithms that reflect our understanding and update automatically as the world changes. Our goal is to build a compounding machine for understanding the world, and use that understanding to invest. That requires navigating levels—understanding both big picture dynamics, like debt cycles and globalization, and being able to form very specific judgments, like what the level of the 10-year US Treasury yield will be in a year from now.

The Bridgewater x Global Citizen “Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge” brings you into the multidimensional challenges Bridgewater faces with an opportunity to tackle a topic that is top of mind for both investors and policy makers alike: the rise of modern mercantilism. By modern mercantilism, we mean the state taking an active role orchestrating the economy to promote national strength, with a specific focus on reducing trade deficits and creating active industrial policy.

Bridgewater and Global Citizen will review the submissions and filter down to the top 100 forecasts. The top 5 winners will receive $25,000 and an employment or internship opportunity at Bridgewater, pending successful completion of its interview requirements.

Additional details on the requirements for the competition are laid out below. Beyond the foundations of good synthesis and analytical rigor, we are looking for independent thinking—people who demonstrate an ability to come at the problem without preconceptions or simply deferring to consensus.

Applications will open on May 20th and will close on August 1st, 2025.

Detailed Submission Instructions:

As part of the competition, we are looking for a three-part submission:

Part 1: Your Forecasts.

• Lay out 20 or more precise forecasts and their probabilities related to the “modern mercantilism” theme.
• Forecasts should be predictions of a binary outcome (it will either happen or it won’t) and have objective resolution criteria (it will be absolutely clear if the forecast was right or wrong).
• The forecasts should span a range of timeframes, from what will happen over the next year to what will happen over the next 10 years.
• The goal of the forecasts should be to be as well-calibrated as possible (if you submit ten forecasts each with a 10% probability, being well-calibrated would mean one of those forecasts ends up happening, and the rest don’t happen).
• Remember these forecasts should have a clear connection to some aspect of modern mercantilism.
• There is no page limit on this section or limit to the number of forecasts you can submit (the minimum is 20). But forecasts can only be 1 sentence each.
  • Example of a good forecast: “There is a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% from 2026-2028.” (The average effective tariff rate over that period will either be higher than 10% or it won’t. The forecast is objectively resolvable based on US customs data).
  • Example of a bad forecast for this part of the competition: “Political polarization will increase.” How do you measure polarization? Over what time period. This isn’t to say understanding political polarization isn’t important — in fact it will probably be one of the most important themes of the rest of the decade. But in this section we are looking for precise, analytical claims.

Part 2: Your Framework and Holistic Synthesis

• Outline your thinking on how modern mercantilism is likely to play out. Here is where we are looking for your thematic synthesis, and a framework that grounds those themes.
• Your reasoning should clearly lay out the cause-and-effect dynamics you expect to drive world events over the next decade.
• There should be a clear through line from your predictions in part 1 to your synthesis here, and you can reference a few of the specific predictions that you believe have the most significant consequences.
• But you will simply not be able to specifically explain and justify how you arrived at each prediction—the challenge is organizing all of those predictions into a holistic view of the world that can inform the approach policy makers take.
• You can reference charts and data as you like.
• There is a 3-page limit to submissions on this section.

Page 3: Analytical Appendix

• Here is your opportunity to further substantiate your predictions and thematic synthesis with additional reasoning, evidence, and analysis.
• How you use this section is up to you—you can walk through the rationales for more specific forecasts, provide your own models to back up specific views (such as GDP growth), or provide more depth on the most important parts of your synthesis.
• We recommend keeping this submission to 10 pages or less, but we will never stop reading analysis if it’s great.

Please note that submitting your resume is entirely optional and will not be assessed as part of the selection process.

By applying and submitting your individual research paper, participants expressly represent and warrant that the substantive elements of their submission constitute the participant’s own original and creative intellectual output, are independently conceived, not plagiarized, nor substantially AI generated.